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Heating in a modular home — heat pump vs air conditioning vs electric fireplace

A modular home usually has no gas connection and no room for a classic stove. That leaves three sensible heating options — all electric. Which one should you pick for a 38 m² year-round home? We compare investment costs, annual bills and the practical downsides of each system.

Date: 2026-08-17
Read time: 7 min
Author: MP Modular

How much heat does a modular home need?

A well-insulated modular home needs far less heat than a traditional brick house of the same size. Three variables drive the demand: insulation class, target indoor temperature and climate zone.

A well-insulated home of about 38 m² (15–20 cm of mineral wool in walls, 25–30 cm in the roof, triple glazing with U ≤ 0.9) needs 3.5–5 kW of heating capacity at winter peak. For comparison: an uninsulated brick house of the same size from the 1990s needs 8–12 kW.

Annual heating energy consumption for such a home in central European climate: 3,000–4,500 kWh. At a rate of €0.19/kWh (night tariff with rooftop solar) that works out to €570–850 per year.

Starting point: before picking a heating system, verify the insulation class of your model. Not even the best heat pump can rescue a house with 8 cm of wool in the walls. More in our article Modular home for winter — which insulation?.

3 heating options — comparison

In practice, small modular homes use one of three options. All run on electricity, all fit within the standard modular home installation (connection per home spec, approx. 12 kW; 3-phase 25 kW optional). The differences show up in purchase cost, annual bills and winter comfort.

OptionCapacityInvestmentAnnual costProsCons
Air-to-air heat pump3.5–5 kW€2,200–3,500€450–700Lowest bills, cools in summer, works down to -25°C (premium models)High upfront cost, needs an outdoor unit
Reversible split AC2.5–3.5 kW€1,000–2,000€550–800Cheap, quick install, dual functionEfficiency drops below -10°C, noisy outdoor unit
Electric fireplace1–2 kW€200–500€1,300–2,000 (as primary)Very cheap to buy, aesthetic, plug & playWon't heat the home on freezing days, high bills

For the comparison we took a 38 m² year-round home in central European climate zone II (northern coast, central lowlands, Warsaw region). In colder zones (northeastern regions) annual costs rise by 20–30%.

Air-to-air heat pump — who is it for?

A dedicated air-to-air heat pump is the most efficient choice. A COP of 3–5 means that 1 kWh of electricity produces 3–5 kWh of heat. Premium models (Mitsubishi Zubadan, Daikin Ururu, Panasonic Aquarea) maintain high COP even at -20°C.

Who it fits: owners living in the modular home year-round, expecting the lowest bills over a 10+ year horizon. Payback vs. cheap AC: 4–6 years.

Investment cost: €2,200–3,500 for a complete set (indoor unit + outdoor unit + installation). Configurations with two indoor units (e.g. living room and bedroom) reach €4,500.

Winter downsides: cheap models (under €1,500) lose 30–50% of capacity at -15°C and drop to COP 1.5. Always pick a low-temperature-rated model (SCOP ≥ 4.5) — otherwise running costs get close to budget AC.

Reversible split AC — the most popular choice

A standard split AC unit with a heating function is the most popular option in modular homes. The reason: low entry cost and a dual function in one device.

Pros:

Cons:

In real numbers: a 3.5 kW A+++ reversible AC for a 38 m² home costs €550–800 per year. Add a fireplace as backup for the coldest 10–15 days of the year.

Electric fireplace — accent piece or primary heat source?

An electric fireplace in a modular home plays one of two roles: supplementary heat (and a design element) or the primary heat source in seasonal cabins.

As a supplement to AC or a heat pump: excellent choice. A 1.5–2 kW unit warms up the living room on freezing evenings when the heat pump loses capacity. The flame effect (LED or water vapor) delivers visual warmth no radiator can match. Purchase cost: €200–500. Annual running cost: €100–200.

As the primary heat source: only in a seasonal cabin used on weekends when outdoor temperatures stay above +5°C. In a year-round home: impractical. Reason: a 2 kW fireplace can't produce the 4–5 kW needed in winter, and running three or four electric fireplaces at full load hits €1,300–2,000 per year and blows the fuse (it exceeds the capacity of a single phase).

Rule of thumb: an electric fireplace is like dessert — great alongside the main course, but no substitute for dinner. Treat it as a comfort element, not the foundation of your heating.

Combinations — central European climate

Central European climate zones II and III mean roughly 2–3 weeks per year with temperatures below -10°C. No single electric system works perfectly across that full range — which is why the optimal solution is a combination.

Three recommended setups:

For a 38 m² home used all year the middle tier usually makes the most sense — the €3,000 investment pays back in 4–5 years against budget AC.

Summary — what to pick for a 38 m² year-round home?

Recommendations depending on budget and planned use:

More important than the choice of system is the preparation of the home. Check the insulation (Modular home insulation) and the foundation (Foundations for a modular home) — 15–20% of heat losses leak through the floor if the foundation is not insulated.

Preparing the installation for an AC unit (power at the indoor unit location, a pass-through for the lines) is best agreed when ordering the home. Installation of the actual device happens after delivery, by a local installer — that way you pick the model and brand for your budget instead of paying upfront for a preset from the manufacturer's catalog.

Not sure which system fits your model?

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